Uber Stock: Price & Earnings

Is This Uber's Last Lap, or Just a Pit Stop? Data Digs Into the Dip.

The Uphill Climb for Uber

$UBER's stock is down 8% today. $UBER stock is down 8% today. Here's what we see in our data. - Quiver Quantitative A sea of red across the market? Not exactly. Volume's high – $2.26 billion traded – suggesting more than just a minor correction. When that much money changes hands, it’s usually a sign of institutional investors making a move. And that's precisely what the Q3 filings reveal: a mass exodus coupled with some significant bets for the company.

Kingstone Capital Partners Texas, LLC, for example, dumped their entire Uber stake – nearly 20 million shares, valued at almost $2 billion. Wellington Management Group LLP slashed their holdings by 62%. Ouch. (That's not a typo, by the way – sixty-two percent.) But before you write Uber's obituary, consider this: UBS AM increased their stake by 82%, adding over 11 million shares. Polen Capital Management and Pacer Advisors, Inc. made even bigger percentage increases, albeit from smaller initial positions.

So, what gives? Is this a classic "smart money" rotation, where some funds are cashing out while others see a buying opportunity? Or is something more fundamental at play?

The Analyst Echo Chamber?

Wall Street analysts, it seems, are overwhelmingly bullish. Twenty "Buy" ratings and zero "Sell" ratings. Zero? Seriously? That level of consensus is almost always a red flag. It suggests either genuine conviction or, more cynically, a herd mentality driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO). Price targets range from $106 to $135, with a median of $110. Let's be brutally honest: price targets are often just educated guesses dressed up as sophisticated financial analysis. I've looked at enough of these to know that analyst forecasts often chase the stock price rather than predict it.

The disconnect between these glowing analyst reports and the institutional selling is striking. It is worth remembering the analysts are often incentivized to maintain good relationships with the companies they cover. A "Sell" rating can damage that relationship and limit access to management – access that's crucial for gathering information (or, perhaps, for being subtly influenced).

Insiders, meanwhile, are cashing out. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has sold 450,000 shares in the last six months. Tony West, another executive, unloaded 112,500 shares. (Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, the CFO, did buy a measly five shares, but then sold 11,000. Not exactly a ringing endorsement). Insider selling isn't automatically a sign of trouble. They might just be diversifying their portfolios. But when multiple executives are selling, it raises eyebrows.

Congress Gets a Ride, Too

Members of Congress have also been trading $UBER stock. There have been five purchases and one sale in the past six months. Representative Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. purchased up to $15,000 worth of shares on October 17th. Is this insider trading? Probably not, but the optics aren't great.

The fact that Uber receives government award payments—$236,870 over the last year—adds another layer of complexity. These contracts, while small individually (ranging from $20,000 to $50,000), create a potential conflict of interest. Are these Congressional trades based on non-public knowledge of upcoming government contracts? It's impossible to say for sure, but the potential for abuse is there. (And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Why are members of Congress trading individual stocks at all, given the obvious potential for conflicts? A blind trust seems like a bare minimum requirement).

Is the Ride Over?

So, what's the takeaway? Uber is a complex story. The stock dip today is likely the result of institutional investors rebalancing their portfolios. The analyst ratings are overwhelmingly positive, but should be taken with a grain of salt. Insider selling and Congressional trading add a layer of intrigue, but don't necessarily indicate wrongdoing.

It's all a bit like watching a race car make a pit stop. Is it just a routine check, or is there a deeper problem with the engine? The data is mixed, and the answer isn't clear.

Follow the Smart Money (Out the Door?)